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On the third of this month, the Democratic Party enters the elections with clear momentum, but the scale of its potential victory in the Senate remains undecided.
Although the midterm elections do not involve electing a new president, they usually turn into a referendum on the president's performance after two years in office.
In these elections, President Trump has made himself a central focus of the campaign, at a time when opinion polls show a sharp decline in his popularity.
Democrats are attempting to turn the vote into a reckoning for President Trump's economic and political policies, while Republicans are trying to defend Trump's agenda and convince voters that his policies need time.
In the upcoming elections, the economy is the Republicans' weak point; the American voter is currently concerned with: food prices, housing costs, fuel prices, insurance and healthcare, purchasing power, and the standard of living.
Polling data indicates that 84% of registered American voters consider the economy very important in determining their vote. This is a dangerous point for Republicans, because the party that controls the White House often bears responsibility for economic conditions, even when the causes are broader than its direct policies.
It is necessary not to over-interpret the results, as a Democratic victory does not necessarily mean a radical shift in US foreign policy, for three reasons:
In US foreign policy, the president is the primary executive authority in managing foreign relations and military decisions.
Regarding Israel, there are differences within the Democratic Party itself, and the party cannot be considered a single bloc. Trump's ability to secure funding or legislative support for his policies may change, but Congress alone does not hold the power to decide foreign policy.
However, Democratic control of one or both houses may increase oversight of US administration decisions, as well as military spending and foreign aid.
The midterm elections hold three tests:
The Trump test: Here the question arises as to whether he is capable of converting his personal popularity into electoral votes?
The Democratic test: Here the question is about the extent to which they can move from opposition and protest to regaining institutional power?
Added to this is the American society test: Here the question is to determine whether the economy and living costs are more important than partisan polarization and political identity?
Most importantly in my estimation, if the Republicans lose the House of Representatives, it will not mean the political fall of President Trump, but it will mean that the second half of his term will be completely different from the first half.
Before next Tuesday, the date of the midterm elections, the question remains on everyone's mind: Could the 2026 elections be the beginning of the decline of the Trump political project, or are they merely a temporary electoral punishment due to the economy, the high cost of living in the United States, and the high costs of life that the American citizen is suffering from?
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