America votes amidst intertwined crises

European doubts regarding a change in Washington's policies after the vote

Days before the US midterm elections scheduled for November 3, eyes are turning to a political battle that transcends the traditional competition between the Republican and Democratic parties, placing US President Donald Trump before a decisive test of his popularity and his ability to maintain his influence within Congress.

In light of increasing economic pressures, the repercussions of the war with Iran, and the escalating controversy over immigration policies, corruption, and the use of artificial intelligence, the elections appear to be an indirect referendum on the Republican administration's performance during two years of the second presidential term.

The importance of the event is not limited to determining which party will control the House of Representatives and the Senate during the final two years of Trump's presidency, but extends to shaping the features of the next political phase and determining the president's ability to pass his domestic agenda and implement his foreign policies.

European capitals are also following the results with concern, amid doubts about the ability of any shift in the balance of power within Congress to change Washington's approach toward Ukraine, NATO, and tariffs.

Living costs top the concerns of American voters, at a time when they are facing a rise in fuel, housing, electricity, and food prices, in addition to borrowing costs.

Inflation reached 3.7 percent in September, according to data in polls covered by reports, while a Pew Research Center poll showed that 65 percent of Americans believe Trump's economic policies are harming the economy.

The tariffs imposed by the president constitute one of the most prominent axes of political confrontation, as his critics hold them responsible for increasing burdens on consumers, while the administration defends them as a means to protect American industry and boost revenue.

Republicans thus face a challenge in convincing voters that their economic policies can improve their living conditions, while Democrats are betting on turning dissatisfaction with prices into electoral gains.

In addition to the economy, the US war with Iran has imposed itself strongly on the electoral scene, after it contributed to raising energy prices and sparked increasing objections to the continuation of military operations.

An Emerson College poll in September showed that the war topped the list of the most important issues for participants, while a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that only 34 percent approve of Trump's handling of the conflict.

The repercussions of the war extended into the Republican Party itself, as candidates in heated electoral races called for an end to the fighting, while four Republican senators joined Democrats in a vote aimed at restricting the war.

This reflects growing fears that the economic and military cost of the conflict will turn into an electoral weakness for the president and his party.

On the immigration file, Trump faces another test related to one of his most prominent campaign pledges. After returning to the White House vowing to carry out mass deportations, support for his policies has declined against the backdrop of controversy over deaths during arrests and detentions, and the tightening of measures implemented by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

A Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that 55 percent of participants do not approve of his handling of the file.

Polls also indicate a narrowing of the gap between Republicans and Democrats in voter confidence regarding immigration management, after Republicans enjoyed a clear lead in this area in 2024.

The importance of these developments is especially evident in competitive districts, where a poll covering a number of them showed that 62 percent of voters of Latino origin oppose the deportation and immigration enforcement policies followed by the administration.

In parallel with these files, Trump's personality and his style of exercising power have become a central focus of the campaign.

The president has called on voters to treat the elections as if his name were on the ballot, a move that reflects his desire to rally his supporters, but which places his personal performance at the heart of the competition.

Polls indicate that concerns about government ethics and corruption are also affecting voter trends. A University of Massachusetts Amherst poll showed that 97 percent of Americans believe there is at least some level of corruption within the federal government, while 66 percent said they do not trust Trump, or trust him only slightly, regarding avoiding the exploitation of his position to achieve benefits for his family's business. Democrats vow to open investigations into the family's business activities if they regain oversight powers in Congress, while Republicans reject these accusations and describe them as politically motivated.

In an attempt to compensate for his declining popularity, Trump has intensified his campaign rallies, traveling between states to rally his base known as the "MAGA" movement, while escalating his attacks on Democrats and offering financial promises to voters. Among these promises is his pledge to pay five thousand dollars to every adult American citizen if Republicans retain their majority in Congress, a plan that has raised questions about its legality and funding sources, as well as widespread doubts about the possibility of its implementation.

However, Trump's intense presence may turn into a burden for Republicans, especially with his approval ratings falling to historically low levels, according to polls cited in reports.

Analysts believe that the president may succeed in driving his supporters to vote, but his confrontational rhetoric may alienate some independent voters and traditional conservatives, or lead them to abstain from participating.

These fears increase the possibility of the party suffering losses in the midterm elections, in which the president's party often loses seats in Congress.

In a notable development, Secretary of State Marco Rubio joined Trump's campaign in the state of Texas, where he accompanied him on a visit to the port of Corpus Christi to inspect a tanker carrying Venezuelan oil.

This rare participation in an internal election campaign comes at a time when Republicans are seeking to strengthen their presence, while facing the possibility of losing control of one or both houses of Congress.

The visit also highlighted the Venezuelan file, which represents a priority for Rubio, known for his hardline positions toward Latin America, and his potential political future in light of speculation about the 2028 presidential election.

As for artificial intelligence, it has also entered the circle of electoral friction, with growing concerns about its impact on jobs, safety, and the economy, as well as the burdens that giant data centers may impose on electricity and water supplies and local communities.

Half of the participants in a Pew Research Center poll reported that they are deeply concerned about the role of artificial intelligence in the economy, while 59 percent opposed political leaders supporting the establishment of data centers in their residential areas.

Outside the United States, Europe is following the elections with a great deal of caution, without broad expectations that a Democratic advance will lead to a radical change in Washington's policies. European officials doubt that a Republican loss will lead to a change in Trump's position on Ukraine or a reversal of the tariffs imposed on the European Union. Washington's allies are also awaiting the results of a review of the US military presence on the continent, amid fears of troop reductions.

European officials believe that the trend toward strengthening the continent's defense capabilities will continue regardless of the election result, while they do not count much on the return of US support for Ukraine to its previous levels.

Conversely, there are fears that any electoral defeat might push Trump to intensify his foreign actions to divert attention from his internal crises, whether through escalation in the Middle East or taking new steps regarding Ukraine.

Between economic pressures, internal divisions, and the repercussions of the war, the November 3 elections appear to be a pivotal point in determining the future of the American political balance. If Republicans retain Congress, Trump may gain more space to continue implementing his agenda. If Democrats manage to snatch the majority in one or both houses, the White House may enter a more difficult phase of oversight and political confrontation. In both cases, the results of the vote will not be limited to Washington, but will reflect on the calculations of allies and adversaries, in a world awaiting the direction of US policy during what remains of Trump's term.