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The US Electoral Scene

Yesterday, early voting concluded, with nearly 51 million citizens having cast their ballots; 28 million voted early at polling stations, and 23 million voted by mail. This is a strong indicator of the importance of the midterm elections. Attention in these elections is focused on economic conditions and the standard of living, which is what matters to the citizen. The American citizen, when voting, is not very concerned with matters related to foreign policy. In these elections, two main issues have emerged that have directed the citizen toward voting: the first is the economic situation, including high costs, inflation, and rising gasoline and diesel prices, which is a historical priority for the citizen. The Democratic Party has linked the issue of high costs, rising prices, and poor economic conditions to the Iran-US war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as 94% of their partisan advertisements focused on this link, asserting that Trump’s foreign policies are the main reason for the decline in the economic and living conditions of the American citizen.

The second issue is immigration, as citizens' positions on this file vary; some see it as harmful to American society, while others believe that subjecting immigrants to intimidation, imprisonment, and repression has nothing to do with democratic values and that there is a need for humane approaches. In the Republican sphere, opinion is divided between deportation and the view that they should be allowed to stay, especially those who work. There are approximately 22.5 million immigrants eligible to vote, of whom 16 million have registered. According to public opinion polls, 51% of them support the Democratic Party, and 24% support the Republican Party. This segment prefers early voting.

The issue of the redrawing of electoral district boundaries that took place, where the ruling party sought to restore influence and weight in the electoral district so that the Republican Party could gain this leverage and obtain a majority, indicates—in general—a major division within American society. This will be reflected in the results, which polls indicate show the Democratic Party leading in most of the contested districts. This will lead to curbing President Trump’s policies in the coming period, as wars have impacted the American interior, especially in the economic sphere, which is a factor clearly and evidently influencing the election process in general.

These elections are considered the most significant in terms of campaign advertising, as more than 11 billion was spent on campaigning. This figure is the most prominent, even exceeding the costs spent on the 2024 presidential elections. The latest polls indicate that 51% support the Democratic Party compared to 43% who support the Republican Party, and there is a general lead for the Democrats of about eight points at the general level. We will witness the shifting of Republican states to Democratic ones in terms of representatives, the Senate, and even state governors.

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