Opposing Alliances Redraw the Regional Influence Map
Amman5 min read
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In light of the escalating US-Iran war and its repercussions on the security of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, new alliances are forming that are redrawing the map of influence in the Middle East, with Turkish-Japanese cooperation emerging as a development that is imposing itself on Israeli calculations, in parallel with Israeli efforts to limit the growing Turkish influence in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi met in New York on September 22, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meetings, in their first direct meeting. The two sides discussed ways to strengthen strategic relations between the two countries, including economic, defense, and educational cooperation, alongside developments related to Iran and the Palestinian issue. Takaichi emphasized the importance of de-escalation, regional stability, and ensuring safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, while Erdogan stressed his country's desire to expand cooperation with Japan in the fields of economy, defense, and education.
Tokyo seeks to advance economic relations with Ankara, including reaching an economic partnership agreement, and enhancing cooperation in the field of defense equipment and technology.
In turn, Japan views Turkey as a party capable of playing a diplomatic role in Middle East crises, given its relations with diverse parties, from Iran to NATO countries. The recent meeting confirmed the continuation of coordination between the two countries on regional and international files.
This rapprochement gains additional importance given the sensitivity of the Strait of Hormuz to global energy security and trade, and at a time when Ankara is seeking to expand its diplomatic, economic, and defense presence outside its immediate vicinity.
From the Israeli perspective, these moves are inseparable from the broader shift in Turkey's role, particularly in Syria, where Ankara has become one of the most prominent supporters of the new Syrian government and the rebuilding of its military and security capabilities.
Israel is concerned about the possibility of the Turkish presence in Syria turning into a permanent military presence, especially if it is linked to the establishment of facilities or airbases that could affect the freedom of action of the Israeli Air Force.
Some Israeli analyses summarize this approach with the phrase 'neither Iran nor Turkey,' meaning preventing the return of Iranian influence to Syria, and at the same time preventing Turkey from becoming the most influential external power in the Syrian arena.
In this context, Israeli-Greek military cooperation, along with the tripartite partnership with Cyprus, has emerged as one of the paths to balance Turkish influence in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Greece and Israel have become key parties in growing security and military arrangements in the region over recent years, including joint training, and cooperation in air defense, drones, and cyber warfare.
Israel, Greece, and Cyprus have also strengthened their trilateral cooperation, with the three countries holding a meeting in Jerusalem on December 22, 2025, during which they confirmed continued cooperation in the fields of security, defense, and regional stability.
This comes as Israeli-Turkish competition for influence in the Eastern Mediterranean and Syria intensifies.
The 'Israeli-Greek-Cypriot' cooperation is one of the most prominent frameworks that Israel can use to balance Turkish influence, as this axis, in addition to military cooperation, is linked to broader competition over energy, maritime boundaries, and gas transportation routes, as well as geopolitical considerations related to Turkey's location and growing role in the region.
This is accompanied by Israeli political messages directed at Ankara, as the Israeli leadership used a discourse warning against attempts to rebuild imperial influence in the region, which observers understood as a reference to Erdogan's regional project.
In turn, Ankara has been keen not to turn the tension with Israel into a direct confrontation, aware of the complexities of the relationship between Israel and the United States and Turkey's position within NATO.
This factor points to what Israeli analysts have described as the 'glass ceiling' of enmity between the two parties; Turkey and Israel are closely linked to Washington, and Turkey is a member of NATO, which sets limits on escalation and makes the transition from indirect political and military competition to an open confrontation more complicated.
At the same time, Turkey is working to build a broader network of regional relations and alliances, enhancing its ability to maneuver against competing axes.
Its cooperation with Japan in this context adds an international dimension to its foreign policy, especially as agreements and discussions focus on the economy, energy, and defense, alongside its ongoing movements in the Middle East, the Balkans, and the Eastern Mediterranean.
While Israel is working to strengthen its network of defense relations with Greece, Cyprus, and other countries, Turkey is seeking to expand its partnerships, including with major Asian powers such as Japan.
Recent developments reveal a multi-track Israeli strategy in dealing with the growing Turkish role, combining the strengthening of military alliances in the Eastern Mediterranean, monitoring the Turkish presence in Syria, and using military force when Tel Aviv sees its security interests threatened.
In turn, Ankara is trying to expand its margin of maneuver through diplomatic, economic, and military tools, while avoiding a direct confrontation with Israel.
Between these two tracks, Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean are likely to remain at the heart of Turkish-Israeli competition, while the Turkish-Japanese rapprochement adds a new dimension to the scene.
