Italian Parliament votes on electoral law that could determine Meloni's fate

Italy's current electoral system combines simple majority voting and proportional representation, and neither the right nor the left is expected to win an absolute majority in parliament in the next elections.

Meloni's coalition believes that passing a new law is necessary to strengthen political stability in Italy, but experts warn that it could backfire and pave the way for the left to win in the 2027 elections.

Minister for Relations with Parliament Luca Ciriani told Agence France-Presse (AFP) that the electoral reform would allow for "ensuring governability."

He added that it would also be in the interest of voters, by obliging parties and coalitions to clarify their government programs and name their candidates for prime minister "long before the elections."

This could pose a problem for the center-left, which is divided on key political issues and has yet to unite behind a single leader.

The opposition has vowed to vote against the amendment, which has been approved by the Senate and now requires the approval of the Chamber of Deputies.

Chiara Braga, head of the Democratic Party bloc, the main opposition party, in the Chamber of Deputies, told AFP that the proposal "bends democratic rules to serve the interests of those in power."

- Secret ballot -

Meloni's "Brothers of Italy" party and its allies enjoy a parliamentary majority, but tensions have emerged within the coalition ahead of the next legislative elections. Thursday's vote will be held by secret ballot, which could allow rebel lawmakers to vote against the reform.

Meloni has warned that she will resign if the reform is not passed, but analysts believe that lawmakers are unlikely to risk triggering elections now.

Giovanni Orsina, a professor of political science at Luiss University in Rome, said that the passage of the law is "highly likely."

He added that "Meloni does not face major risks" in the Chamber of Deputies vote, "but the law creates a completely open landscape for competition, and therefore she is vulnerable to losing the elections."

Under the proposed system, any coalition that receives more than 42 percent of the vote automatically gains a parliamentary majority, as it is granted 70 additional seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 35 in the Senate.

However, reaching this threshold may be difficult for either side.

Last month, Meloni became the head of the longest-serving government in Italian history since World War II, but her coalition is losing support to former army general Roberto Vannacci and his new party, "Futuro Nazionale" (National Future).

Meloni's term officially ends in October 2027, but she may choose to bring the elections forward to April or May.

Opposition parties have already vowed to challenge the new electoral law in court before that date.