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Netanyahu's Fate

In Israel, the upcoming electoral battle appears closer to a referendum on the policies of Netanyahu's government over recent years, particularly regarding his handling of wars and fronts, judicial reforms, and managing the relationship with the United States. Recent polls indicate that trust in Netanyahu remains low; in a poll by the Institute for National Security Studies, 67% of Israelis said their trust in him is low, compared to only 31% who expressed high confidence. Another poll showed that 61% of Israelis do not want him to run for election, compared to 35% who support it.

On the issue of the relationship with Washington, it is clear that Netanyahu's behavior is no longer just a passing disagreement between an Israeli prime minister and an American president, but has become part of a broad historical political change surrounding the Israeli Prime Minister. Although current data suggests that Netanyahu remains a strong political player.

However, the picture is not one of Netanyahu's political collapse, as against the aforementioned polls, others show that his camp is beginning to regain "some" strength, and that Likud is beginning to regain balance with the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot, therefore, neither camp appears to easily guarantee a parliamentary majority capable of forming a government. This means that Netanyahu is still able to compete, benefiting from divisions among his opponents and from security files in which he has extensive political experience in employing them, as well as having the ability at any moment to reopen one of the unresolved fronts to delay the entire electoral process.

As for Washington, this is where the most important issue lies, as there is real American anger and tension towards Netanyahu, but it is not anger that means a break with Israel, as President Donald Trump openly expressed his displeasure with Netanyahu's handling of certain files, and differences emerged over Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza, and reports spoke of a decline in the warmth of American welcome for Netanyahu, especially during his recent visit to New York.

The most indicative of this is that Trump, in a recent interview, avoided explicitly supporting Netanyahu in the upcoming Israeli elections, despite affirming support for Israel.

But we must not confuse anger at Netanyahu with anger at Israel, as Washington continues to provide security support to Israel, while the broader political issue is that Netanyahu's file has become more costly within American politics, especially with the widening partisan division within America about Israel.

The bottom line is that Netanyahu is not politically isolated or finished, but he is facing a different moment: his opponents are pressuring him domestically, and Washington is no longer giving him an open political check, and perhaps the most important issue in the coming phase is not whether Netanyahu is still strong, but to what extent he can turn his weaknesses into strengths.

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