Skip to content
Amman —

Netanyahu is fighting his last battle to stay in power... Will he succeed?

The testimony of "Avi Gil," Netanyahu's former military secretary, on October 8th, came as a bombshell, opening a new chapter in this confrontation. Avi Gil said that warnings of a decline in deterrence and the possibility of a confrontation reached the Prime Minister in the weeks and months before the attack, and that intelligence flowed through the relevant institutions in the early hours of October 7th. He also spoke of an attempt to change the timing of a recorded call in the official record. These are not trivial details; the issue concerns the difference between failing to assess the danger, which is a serious political and security failure according to the criticisms raised, and the possibility of manipulating records or misleading investigative authorities, which could have legal consequences if proven and identified by the investigation, reaching the level of high treason. However, Netanyahu did not accept Gil's account, but responded by accusing him of failing to wake him up in time (note the absurdity of the response). Thus, the confrontation turned into a struggle over the narrative itself: who received the information? Who conveyed it? And what happened in the hours leading up to the attack? These questions, in the absence of a final public investigation, remain a point of contention among the parties involved.

Politically, Netanyahu will attempt to shift the center of the discussion from his personal responsibility to the failure of the entire security establishment, arguing that the disaster was not the result of a single decision. He has explicitly stated this before, accusing Ronen Bar, head of the Shin Bet, and Herzi Halevi, the IDF Chief of Staff. He may also seek to buy time, mobilizing his base around what he considers subsequent military achievements, and presenting himself as the leader capable of managing and controlling regional threats. However, these tools and the style Netanyahu is accustomed to no longer hold value with the Israeli public, particularly in the eyes of his traditional opponents and the families of Hamas prisoners and victims of the war in Gaza, who remain steadfast in their demand for an independent investigation to determine responsibilities.

Here, the question arises regarding the possibility of Netanyahu being prosecuted for his political and military failure in the events of October 7th, and what the grounds for this might be. In response, I say that it remains a possibility, but it cannot be definitively stated now; political responsibility does not automatically mean criminal responsibility, and Gil's testimony alone is not sufficient to prove a crime committed by Netanyahu. However, if documented evidence of deliberate alteration of records or obstruction of the investigation emerges, a different legal path may open up beyond merely holding Netanyahu and his government accountable for the security failure, if the relevant authorities conclude that the evidence meets the necessary legal criteria under Israeli law.

The deeper dilemma in all this scenario may emerge within Likud itself; the party that has long been associated with Netanyahu's leadership will, sooner or later, face the difficult question of succession. The question is: can Likud produce a new leadership that preserves its electoral base, or will Netanyahu's legacy become a source of division between those who want to continue his approach and those who believe that the party's future requires separation from him? This is a political possibility that depends on internal and electoral developments that cannot be predetermined.

Rajatalab5@gmail.com

Know more about this story?Send us a tip

Al Rai

AI

Ask about this report — answers stay grounded in its text.

Answers are experimental and grounded in Al Rai reporting. Each question uses 2 credits.