Growth of nearly 3%, in light of regional unrest, energy market fluctuations, and global trade pressures, reflects clear resilience. Monetary and fiscal policies have played a role in this; pegging the Dinar to the Dollar continues to limit exchange rate risks, foreign reserves are strong, and financial and technical support from the United States, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Union continues, accompanied by a reform path acknowledged by the agency.
However, a realistic reading requires caution. Growth at this level remains gradual and does not, by itself, bring about a transformation in the labor market or in household living standards. The critical issue is the quality of growth: how many new jobs does it generate, and to what extent does it increase productivity?
Regarding the public debt file, Moody's expects the debt-to-GDP ratio to decrease from 83% in 2025 to 76% by 2030. This is a positive development, albeit slow and conditional; it is achieved if the output grows at a faster pace than the debt, fiscal discipline continues, and the efficiency of public spending improves. Reducing the ratio remains contingent upon higher productivity and projects that generate real added value.
As for investment, maintaining the rating sends a reassuring message to investors, as it confirms that sovereign risks remain within manageable limits. However, investment decisions are based on considerations closer to the field; the investor reads the stability of legislation and energy costs, and tests the speed of government procedures at the first transaction. Moody's itself indicates that growth could exceed its estimates if foreign investment projects accelerate, including the water desalination project in Aqaba and the development of the Risha gas field.
The biggest challenge remains transforming growth into opportunities that the citizen can feel. This requires policies directed toward sectors with the highest employment capacity, such as tourism and information technology, alongside small and medium-sized enterprises. It also requires reforming education and vocational training to link their outputs to market needs, so that young people find a real path to productive jobs.
In conclusion, Moody's projections express confidence in Jordan's ability to maintain its stability and place a clear priority before the decision-maker: transitioning from managing stability to creating growth. The success of this is measured by the productive jobs created and the improvement in citizens' incomes.
