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Jordan's credit rating enhances opportunities for building an economy

Foreign trade data reveal the importance of this shift; total exports increased by 10.3% during the first seven months of 2026, compared to a 4.6% growth in national exports, while the trade deficit reached about 5.19 billion dinars. These figures indicate that the increase in trade movement does not necessarily mean that domestic production is expanding at the same pace, and that the economy needs to maximize the value-added generated within the Kingdom. Jordan's geographical location between the Gulf markets, Iraq, Syria, and the port of Aqaba gives it an opportunity to develop industries and services related to storage, assembly, manufacturing, and distribution, which would transform trade movement into a broader source of income and employment, and reduce reliance on transit activity alone.

Hence, the need arises to develop a national index for exposure to economic shocks, which measures the degree of reliance of productive sectors on specific export markets, import sources, and transport routes that may be subject to disruption. This can begin with five vital sectors, including food, pharmaceutical, and chemical industries, agriculture, and logistics, by identifying the value of production, exports, and jobs exposed to risks, and the time required to restore activity when one of the routes or supply sources is disrupted. This data will allow the government and the private sector to proactively identify areas of economic vulnerability and direct interventions toward the sectors most exposed to shocks and with the highest impact on the national economy, instead of waiting for losses to appear to address them.

In parallel, enhancing economic resilience requires preparing a national map of bottlenecks that increase production and export costs, especially in energy, water, transport, and logistics procedures. The importance of this map lies not in listing known challenges, but in prioritizing their resolution according to the expected economic return from each intervention. A project that reduces the production cost of an export commodity or shortens its arrival time to markets may achieve an economic impact that exceeds its direct investment value. Clear indicators can be adopted, such as the reduction in transport cost per ton, the reduction in clearance and shipping time, the improvement in energy and water efficiency, and linking the evaluation of government projects to their ability to raise the competitiveness of establishments and increase exports and jobs.

This approach is completed by developing periodic economic stress tests for vital sectors, simulating scenarios of rising shipping costs, supply chain disruptions, or declining demand in a major export market. The goal is not to predict crises accurately, but to test the economy's readiness to deal with them and identify available alternatives before they are needed. These tests can be implemented in cooperation between economic ministries, statistical agencies, and the private sector, without necessarily needing to create new institutions, provided that their results are translated into actionable plans and an annual review that measures the extent of risk reduction. Every factory that maintains its production during a trade disruption, and every alternative market that absorbs Jordanian exports, represents a direct economic gain.

The stability of the credit rating represents an important foundation to build upon, but it should not be the ultimate goal of economic policy. Transitioning from crisis management to anticipating their risks requires transforming financial and monetary stability into higher productive and competitive capacity, and into an institutional system that measures sources of vulnerability and works to reduce them. Developing an exposure-to-shocks index, a bottlenecks map, and economic stress tests could form a practical initiative within the economic modernization path, whose results are measured by lower production costs, market diversification, continuity of economic activity, and increased job opportunities. Then, the true value of the credit rating becomes Jordan's ability to protect its economic gains, reduce the cost of crises on the state, the private sector, and the citizen, and continue growth with confidence and sustainability.

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