Jordanian economic performance strength drives »Fitch« to raise growth forecasts

Fitch Solutions raised its forecast for real GDP growth in Jordan for 2026 to 2.6%, compared with its previous forecast of 2.1%, in light of the economy delivering stronger-than-expected performance during the second quarter of the year.

According to the firm's report, the Jordanian economy recorded a 3% year‑on‑year growth in the second quarter, surpassing its forecasts, attributing this to containment of price pressures during the early stages of the US‑Iran conflict, increased logistics activity at the Port of Aqaba, and favorable conditions that supported agricultural production.

The firm indicated that the revision of growth forecasts reflects the economic performance that showed resilience in the face of challenges, expecting growth to reach 2.6% during the current year.

The head of the Zarqa Industry Chamber, Engineer Fares Hamouda, said that Fitch Solutions' raising of its real GDP growth forecast for the Kingdom to 2.6% reflects a positive view of Jordan's economic performance and highlights the adaptability and resilience shown in facing challenges.

Hamouda explained that despite regional political and logistical tensions and challenges, this year's growth forecast is higher than the firm's previous estimate of 2.1%, supported by the economy's positive performance, which recorded a 3% growth in the second quarter, according to the report.

He noted that the expected economic growth is also linked to the continued implementation of several major infrastructure projects, such as transport, water and gas projects, which will raise the competitiveness of the national economy and improve investment levels, alongside boosting industrial exports, especially to Arab countries, amid supply‑chain obstacles in the region, as well as tourism activity from Arab markets to Jordan.

Hamouda indicated that the report showed improvement in several economic activities, including agricultural production and workers' remittances, together with a cautious revival in the tourism sector, all of which collectively supported GDP growth.

For his part, economist Wajdi Mkhammara pointed out that Fitch Solutions' raising of its 2026 Jordanian economy growth forecast from 2.1% to 2.6% after recording a 3% growth in the second quarter represents a positive indicator reflecting the national economy's ability to adapt to regional challenges and absorb the repercussions of geopolitical shocks.

He added that this revision reflects an improvement in the assessment of economic performance compared with previous forecasts, confirming the continuation of economic activity despite unstable regional conditions.

He explained that the report highlights the importance of tourism, transport, logistics services and agriculture in supporting economic growth, noting that increased activity at the Port of Aqaba, improved agricultural output, and higher workers' remittances contributed to supporting consumption and economic activity.

He added that a 6.2% growth in manufacturing during the second quarter reflects the importance of the production base in enhancing the economy's capacity to face crises and reduce reliance on sectors most affected by external developments.

Mkhammara emphasized that the report confirms the strategic importance of the tourism sector, which contributes between 14% and 16% of GDP and provides extensive employment opportunities. He noted that despite a decline in some European and Western markets, Jordan was able to offset part of this drop by increasing visitors from nearby markets such as Iraq, Turkey and Syria, in addition to stimulating domestic tourism.

He pointed out that full recovery of the sector requires improved regional stability, diversification of tourism markets, and development of Jordanian tourism products, thereby enhancing its ability to attract visitors and extend their stay.

Mkhammara stated that although the improvement in growth rates is positive, the main challenge lies in how this growth translates into citizens' living standards, especially given ongoing unemployment challenges and weak purchasing power. Economic growth ranging between 2.5% and 3% may help maintain macroeconomic stability, but it is insufficient on its own to bring a tangible transformation in the labor market and income levels.

Accordingly, he stressed the need to focus on productive investments capable of providing sustainable jobs and raising productivity and local value added.

Mkhammara affirmed that the current phase requires leveraging economic resilience indicators to transition to a higher and more sustainable growth stage, through strengthening manufacturing, increasing exports, developing transport and logistics services, stimulating domestic and foreign investment, and accelerating the implementation of strategic projects.

He also called for linking investment incentives to their contribution to job creation, productivity improvement, and the distribution of growth gains across the Kingdom's governorates.

Mkhammara concluded that the Fitch Solutions report carries a positive message about the Jordanian economy's resilience and continued growth despite regional challenges, yet true economic success is not measured solely by higher GDP, but by the ability of that growth to generate jobs, improve citizens' incomes, and enhance the competitiveness of the national economy.

For his part, financial and economic expert Dr. Mohammed Al‑Hadab Al‑Sarhan said that Fitch Solutions' raising of its growth forecast for the Jordanian economy from 2.1% to 2.6% reflects a better performance than previous estimates, despite regional challenges.

He explained that the significance of this revision lies not only in the half‑percentage‑point increase in growth expectations, but in the economy's ability to seize available opportunities and maintain its productive and service activities amid unstable regional conditions.

Al‑Sarhan noted that the diversification of growth sources among tourism, agriculture, logistics services and workers' remittances represents one of Jordan's economic strengths, as it reduces reliance on a single sector and enhances shock‑absorption capacity. However, the real challenge is turning the improvement linked to regional and seasonal conditions into lasting gains through higher productivity, investment and increased local value added.

He pointed out that compensating part of the decline in Western tourism by increasing visitors from regional markets underscores the importance of diversifying tourism sources and not relying on specific nationalities. He called for developing tourism programmes targeting Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Gulf countries, encouraging longer stays and higher spending, while directing tourism activity toward the governorates to increase benefits for local communities and boost employment opportunities.

Al‑Sarhan added that the growing logistics activity at the Port of Aqaba presents an opportunity to cement Jordan's position as a regional hub for trade and transport, especially as shipping routes shift in the region. He affirmed the necessity of exploiting this opportunity by developing storage, distribution centres and shipping‑related services, improving connectivity between the port, industrial zones and border crossings, thereby turning cargo flows into investments, returns and jobs within the Kingdom.

He noted that improved agricultural production should encourage expansion in food processing, cold storage and modern irrigation technologies, to increase the economic return from production and reduce waste.

He also mentioned that higher workers' remittances boost household purchasing power and support domestic demand, and their economic impact can be maximized by providing suitable saving and investment tools for expatriates, channeling part of these savings into viable productive projects.

Al‑Sarhan concluded that the upward revision of growth forecasts is a positive indicator, but it does not mean the disappearance of economic challenges, foremost among them unemployment, production costs and exposure to regional developments.

He affirmed that the next phase requires policies that invest the current improvement to raise the competitiveness of productive sectors and stimulate private investment, ensuring that growth translates concretely into citizens' incomes and job opportunities, and turning the economy's resilience into a sustainable capacity for expansion and growth.