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Israeli Elections.. Will the Rules of the Conflict Change?!

The internal political map of Israel indicates that Netanyahu is retreating, but the opposition remains divided and lacks a guarantee of forming a stable government. At the same time, the war remains open and the fronts in Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, Syria, and even the occupied West Bank are hot. Consequently, the occupation army is fighting multi-front wars of attrition; indeed, signs of escalation are emerging in Bab el-Mandeb, meaning there is an escalation that could open wider regional fronts.

Netanyahu may try to market himself as the most capable of managing Israel's affairs in light of the dangerous regional environment prevailing in the region, knowing that Netanyahu himself is the one who admitted to obstructing the establishment of a Palestinian state since the launch of the Madrid peace process more than 35 years ago. He is also the one who admitted his skill in sowing discord among the countries of the region and fabricating crises and wars in order to keep the occupying entity safe, which is the same reason he works for by frightening the countries of the region about the return of empires to control the region, forgetting that the continued occupation of Palestinian lands and the attacks on the countries of the region are what weakened the voice of the moderate axis and gave the opportunity for religious extremism to expand in the region.

The fundamental dilemma for Israeli politicians is the disregard for the fact that the expansion of the fronts and the extension of military geography increase economic, security, and human costs. Opening a new front in the occupied West Bank may be the most dangerous point in terms of a Palestinian popular explosion in the face of settler terrorism, the establishment of settlement outposts on Palestinian lands, and entering into a confrontation with the Palestinian National Authority, which is showing great composure in the face of the continuous provocations of the hardline Zionist right in Israel. Consequently, any expected explosion in the West Bank will not remain confined to Palestinian geography but will have wide regional repercussions.

The "endless war" strategy may be an intentional Israeli policy to export its internal crisis to the countries of the region, especially after the events of October 7th. But let us look at the results that followed: global trade and energy supplies were disrupted, investments in the region declined significantly, fears of displacement and annexation scenarios are growing, and ships and oil tankers are sailing through minefields. Thus, permanent security is not achieved by using military force; on the contrary, challenges and threats have increased and expanded to include one of the most important and sensitive geographical regions in the world.

Jordanian-wise, trust is eroding and the challenge is increasing day by day as a result of Israeli policies that have brought destruction to the region, which has put the voices warning about the future of the relationship with Israel at stake. There is an inability to read the strategic environment for Israel's future correctly, and a deliberate squandering of the regional system that Jordan has worked to stabilize for several decades, which is based on the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital on Palestinian land, and the rejection of displacement in all its forms and justifications.

Given this reality, and in light of these data, Israel does not need to change faces and masks, or reproduce the current government with a new composition, but rather needs a radical political change that leads to a change in the rules and foundations of the conflict in the region. If the government changes but the occupation, settlement, annexation, displacement, and open wars remain, then there is no benefit to be hoped for. The desired change begins when Israeli society realizes that security cannot be achieved through war and the language of force, and regional stability will only be achieved through a just and comprehensive political solution to the Palestinian cause. This is the most important question for the countries of the region, more so than the electoral question and who will rule Israel in the future.

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