These projections come after the latest data from the Department of Statistics showed real GDP growth of 3% during the second quarter of 2026, compared to 2.8% in the same period last year, driven by growth in the agriculture sector by 7.8%, manufacturing by 6.2%, and electricity by 5%, despite the repercussions of the war in the region. The quarterly growth achieved exceeded the annual growth forecasts of international institutions, given the different time periods for comparison.
Regarding prices, the IMF expects average inflation in Jordan to rise to 2.5% in 2026, compared to 1.8% in 2025, before declining to 2.3% in 2027, while Department of Statistics data showed inflation reached 2.26% during the first nine months of the current year, and 2.73% in September on an annual basis, driven mainly by rising transport and rental costs.
Regarding the external sector, the Fund expects Jordan's current account deficit to widen to 7.5% of GDP in 2026, compared to 5.6% in 2025, before narrowing to 5.7% in 2027.
Jordan's projections come at a time when the Fund expects the Middle East and North Africa economy to contract by 2% this year, before recovering with 7% growth in 2027, affected by energy production and trade disruptions caused by the war, while it expects the group of oil-importing countries, which includes Jordan, to grow by 4.7% this year and next.
The report indicated that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused a major shock to global oil supplies, after shipping traffic was disrupted through a corridor that used to transit about 20 million barrels per day before the war, with expectations that average oil prices will reach $95.74 per barrel in 2026, before falling to $87.39 in 2027.
The Fund assumed the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would begin in March 2027, with a gradual return to pre-war conditions by October of the same year, warning that continued escalation could keep energy and food prices high and increase pressures on inflation, growth, and external balances, especially in energy-importing economies.
Globally, the Fund expects the economy to grow by 3.1% in 2026, before accelerating to 3.4% in 2027, despite the repercussions of the war, supported by the resilience of energy supplies and increased investments related to artificial intelligence.
