WTO raises goods trade forecasts thanks to artificial intelligence

The organization expects growth of 4.1 percent in 2027, up from previous projections of 2.6 percent, and slightly lower than the 4.2 percent trade volume growth in 2025.

The report indicated that the surge in spending on semiconductors and AI data centers provided a significant boost, as trade in those products jumped 67 percent from the previous year.

However, the Geneva-based organization lowered its forecasts for services trade to 3.3 percent in 2026, down from the previous baseline projection of 4.8 percent, due to rising aviation fuel costs linked to the conflict in the Middle East.

The organization cut this year's growth forecasts for the transport and travel services sectors, which rely heavily on the region, to 0.9 percent for the former and 0.2 percent for the latter. Services trade growth is expected to rebound to 6.4 percent in 2027.

Global GDP is expected to grow by 2.6 percent in 2026, with the largest gains in Asia at 4.3 percent, followed by Africa and South America, while the Middle East is expected to see a sharp decline in GDP of four percent.

The WTO report warned of several risks that could affect the outlook, such as a decline in household purchasing power due to rising fuel and fertilizer costs linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for global energy supplies, and the Russian war in Ukraine, as well as any slowdown in AI investment.