International Report: Artificial Intelligence Could Increase Global Trade by 40% by 2040
Agencies3 min read
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The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicted that artificial intelligence (AI) could increase the volume of global trade by up to 40% by 2040, and add more than 13% to the global GDP over the next 15 years, in a shift that it said is reshaping the nature of trade and economic opportunities across borders.
The 2026 World Trade Report, translated by 'Al-Mamlaka', showed that the largest expected gains from AI will be concentrated in digitally deliverable services, with technology's ability to increase productivity, stimulate innovation, and reduce some trade costs.
The organization said that digitalization and AI, along with global value chains and environmental policies, are rapidly changing what is traded globally, how trade is conducted, and how the effects of economic policies are transferred from one country to another.
The share of commercial services trade reached nearly 27.6% of total global trade in 2025, driven particularly by the rapid growth in digitally delivered services.
Trade in digitally delivered services grew by 10% in 2025 alone.
The organization believes that reducing the cost of cross-border service delivery through digital technology has created new opportunities for trade-based growth, especially in activities that do not require the movement of physical goods between countries.
- Opportunity Advances Over Rules
However, the rapid digital transformation also poses increasing challenges to the global trading system.
The organization said that differences in rules between countries on privacy, cybersecurity, competition, and AI governance could increase trade costs and create issues related to system compatibility, accountability, and strategic interests.
This challenge is becoming increasingly important as more factors influencing trade shift from border tariffs to systems, rules, and policies applied within economies.
The report noted that non-tariff measures and local rules have become a key factor in determining service trade opportunities, making market access negotiations more complex than traditional negotiations based on tariff reductions.
- A Trade System Preceding the Digital Revolution
The report pointed out that the last comprehensive reform of the multilateral trade system came through the Uruguay Round between 1986 and 1994, which led to the establishment of the World Trade Organization.
Those negotiations took place before the widespread spread of the Internet, before the significant expansion of global value chains, and before data, AI, and digital services became key elements of the global economy.
The WTO believes that the significant opportunities created by digital and green trade have not yet been matched by a similar development of multilateral trade rules.
The increasing interconnectedness of global value chains has also made the impact of trade policies broader, as tariffs or export restrictions imposed by one country can affect companies, production inputs, and markets far from the immediate trading partner.
- Technology Makes Cooperation More Difficult
According to the report, rules related to data, support, standards, security, and environmental policies have become more influential in international trade movements, although negotiating them is more complex than reducing traditional tariffs.
However, the organization believes that this complexity does not reduce the need for international cooperation, but rather increases it, as the broader economic impacts across borders make dealing with them at the national level alone less effective.
The report concluded that the global trading system's ability to benefit from the gains of AI and digitalization will depend on its ability to update cooperation rules to keep pace with an economy that has become more dependent on services, data, and technology, without weakening openness and the predictability of international trade.
