Trump Out of the Nobel Peace Prize Race? Experts Predict the Award Will Go Elsewhere
Agencies3 min read
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Experts said that US President Donald Trump will not win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, but the pressure he exerted last year may affect the calculations of the Norwegian committee that selects the winner, amid anticipation of the announcement on October 9.
Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado won the Nobel Peace Prize last year, in a decision that came after Trump intensified his calls for him to be awarded the prize. Weeks later, Machado presented her gold medal to Trump in a move she said was to gain his support for her efforts to establish democracy in Venezuela.
Trump's Pressure on the Committee
Hakon Jerlow, acting director of the Oslo Peace Research Institute, said that the five-member committee may consider this year the selection of someone who can withstand the political pressure that Trump may exert.
He added that the committee may consider whether awarding the prize to a specific person would expose them to pressure, and whether this would "do more harm than good".
Experts believe that among the names or entities that may receive attention this year are Pope Leo, the International Criminal Court, the International Court of Justice, and Francesca Albanese, the UN Special Rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories.
The Pope and International Courts
Karim Hajjaj, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, said that Pope Leo has become a "prominent thought leader," citing his positions advocating dialogue, peaceful solutions to conflicts, and respect for migrants, in addition to his humanitarian work.
Pope Leo has continued to oppose the war on Iran, at a time described by Trump as "weak" due to his criticism of the war.
The International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice are also among the entities that may be considered, amid a broader debate on international law and the multilateral system.
Albanese faces criticism from the United States and Israel for her positions on the Israeli war in Gaza and the Israeli occupation of the West Bank.
Less Controversial Options
According to experts, the committee may opt for a less controversial entity to avoid escalating pressure. Among the options are the Emergency Rooms in Sudan, a network of local community groups that provide aid during the war, or the Save the Children organization for its role in helping children in conflict zones.
Oyvind Stinersen, a historian who has written about the Nobel Peace Prize, said that the committee is also under pressure to take a stand on what he described as the challenges posed by Trump's approach to the international system.
He added that the current international situation may push for the award to be given in defense of democracy, human rights, and international law.
The winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced in Oslo on October 9. The list of nominees includes 287 individuals and organizations, including 208 individuals and 79 organizations, according to the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
