Israeli opposition leads Netanyahu according to preliminary estimates without a majority, and significant progress for the two Arab lists

The results from the three main television channels showed that Channels 11 and 13 each grant each coalition 51 seats, a number insufficient for either to achieve a majority, while Channel 12 still gives an advantage to the opposition led by Eisenkot.

In a speech to his supporters in Tel Aviv, Eisenkot also warned Netanyahu, saying, "Do not dare to exploit Israel's security to serve your political interests," likely referring to his threats to launch new strikes against Iran.

After a turnout of nearly 78%, the highest since 1999, Eisenkot stressed that it would be "a mistake to go to another round of elections," vowing to work "quickly" to form a government.

He said that Israel "chose change," adding that "a worthy leader would accept the people's vote of no confidence and announce his withdrawal from political life today."

He pointed out that the initial results of the vote show a "lack of confidence" in Netanyahu, who did not immediately make statements, but few expect him to give up.

- "Premature"

Netanyahu's opponents rushed to declare victory, with opposition leader Yair Lapid considering that Netanyahu had suffered a "crushing defeat."

At the "Yesh Atid" party's election rally held in a sports hall in Tel Aviv, jubilant supporters cheered, describing Eisenkot (66) as the next prime minister, and chanted using Netanyahu's nickname, "Bibi, go home!"

However, Israeli Foreign Minister and Netanyahu ally, Gideon Sa'ar, said that the opposition's declaration of victory was "premature."

Political affairs expert Tal Elovits said that Netanyahu's coalition clearly lost, and that the Arab deputies made gains.

He added, "It seems there is a possibility to form a minority government headed by Eisenkot, but this may change depending on the final results."

Polling stations closed at 10:00 PM (20:00 GMT) after witnessing a record voter turnout, in the first electoral contest since October 7, 2023.

The voting rate recorded at the closing of polling stations reached 77.7 percent, the highest since 1999 according to the Central Elections Committee.

The Likud party had asked the Central Elections Committee to extend voting hours as part of its efforts to mobilize more voters. However, the committee rejected the request. It indicated that voters already inside the stations at the closing time would be able to cast their ballots.

It is expected that the Israeli President Isaac Herzog will task the figure whose coalition won the largest number of seats with forming a government, after the announcement of the official results, which may take days.

Voter turnout was unusually high among voters in Arab Israeli towns and in East Jerusalem.

- Tipping the scales -

Although neither of the competing camps committed to including Arab deputies in their next government coalition, the person tasked with forming the government will have to negotiate with the Arab parties, which will inevitably tip the scales in their favor or not.

Since polling stations opened at 05:00 GMT, Agence France-Presse correspondents saw long queues in front of them in various parts of the country, further evidence of the importance these elections hold for many Israelis.

Thousands of Israelis returned to the country to participate in the vote, including Ilana Zisplit (55), who told Agence France-Presse that she returned from Canada for the first time in about 30 years to "bring about change."

She said near a polling station in a Jerusalem neighborhood, "The country is heading in a very, very bad direction. (...) I feel that the moment is decisive... or the country may not be able to continue."

Throughout the campaign preceding the elections, Netanyahu (77) presented the vote as a fateful turning point for the "survival of the Jewish state," warning of dangers threatening it and asserting that he is the only one capable of protecting it.

However, according to the polls, he appears to be the biggest loser in the elections, as his Likud party garnered between 24 and 25 seats, slightly more than the Yesh Atid party led by Eisenkot, while it had 32 seats in the outgoing parliament.

The elections took place against the backdrop of three years of regional wars on multiple fronts in which Israel participated, while the repercussions of the shock following Hamas's unprecedented attack on southern Israel remain strongly present, and issues of accountability and security dominated the election campaign.

Israel appears more isolated on the international stage due to its devastating military campaign in the Gaza Strip, the acceleration of settlement construction, and the escalation of violence in the occupied West Bank.

- "Lies and incitement" -

After casting his vote in Jerusalem, Netanyahu expressed his concern regarding the high turnout among the Arab minority in Israel, warning of "stealing the elections," following reports of the arrest of people in possession of envelopes containing cash.

The Central Elections Committee said that the police caught people who tried to bribe voters, "even before they reached the polling stations," noting that the incident was "isolated."

The head of the United Arab List, Mansour Abbas, responded to Netanyahu by accusing him of "lies and incitement."

The "Yesh Atid" party warned that Netanyahu is paving the way to challenge the election results.

In Umm al-Fahm, an Arab-majority town in the north, Asia Ighbaria, a 23-year-old student, said, "I want change," adding, "I don't want to be treated as a second- or third-class citizen. I just want to live in peace."

The coalition currently headed by Netanyahu is considered one of the most right-wing governments in Israel's history, and includes extreme nationalists whose political influence has grown in recent years.

In contrast, Eisenkot's party leads a coalition that includes forces from the right to the center-left.

Eisenkot's political positions do not differ much from Netanyahu's. He has pledged to prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state and expressed his support for Israeli settlements, but promised to firmly confront settler violence.

Forming any government coalition may take weeks or months, with the possibility of new elections if negotiations fail.