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Economic Growth at 3%: Industry Leading the Way

The average growth over the last three quarters was about 2.97%, compared to an average of 2.55% for the entire period. This comparison is important because it indicates a clear improvement in the growth rate during the recent period, although it does not yet mean that the economy has entered a phase of high growth. Here lies the importance of reading the growth figures for the second quarter of 2026. The Jordanian economy recorded a real growth of 3% compared to 2.8% in the second quarter of 2025. Although the increase is only 0.2 percentage points, its significance comes from the continuation of the trend rather than the size of the increase alone. This result becomes more important when we consider it in the context of the complex regional circumstances and the challenges they impose on trade, tourism, investment, and supply chains. In my estimation, the economy's continued positive growth in such circumstances reflects a degree of resilience and its ability to maintain economic activity and deal with external shocks.

But what sectors led the economic growth? Here appears the most important result, which is the strong performance of the productive sectors, specifically the manufacturing sector. The manufacturing sector grew by 6.2% during the second quarter of 2026, a rate more than double the overall economic growth rate. More importantly, it was the largest contributor to economic growth, adding 1.04 percentage points out of 3%, and its share of GDP at constant prices was 17.2%, the highest among economic sectors.

These figures make the manufacturing sector the key pivot in reading the current growth. There is an important economic difference between the growth of economic activity in general and the growth of a productive sector capable of creating real added value and expanding in local and foreign markets. Also, the industry is not a sector isolated from the rest of the economy. Industrial production expansion means greater demand for transportation, energy, storage, finance, insurance, trade, and logistics services. Therefore, the economic impact of the industry does not stop at its direct contribution to the output, but extends to other sectors linked to it.

The rest of the growth data confirms that the productive picture of the economy has also improved. Agriculture recorded a growth of 7.8%, electricity 5%, and water 4.1%, along with positive growth rates in transportation, storage, information and communication, and financial activities. This means that the growth in the second quarter was not based on a single activity, but the manufacturing sector was the most influential factor in the overall growth rate.

The importance of this result increases when we look at foreign trade data. During the first seven months of 2026, total exports increased by 10.3%, while national exports increased by 4.6%. At the same time, the trade deficit decreased by 6%, and the export coverage ratio of imports increased from 51% to 55%. Foreign trade figures carry more than one message. The first message is that the economy's export capacity is improving. The second message is that exports are covering a larger proportion of imports.

Has this improvement in growth begun to reflect on the labor market? This is an important question because if growth is the overall picture of the economy, then the labor market is one of the most important tests that help us understand the extent to which this growth is transferred to citizens. The unemployment rate among Jordanians decreased from 21.3% in the second quarter of 2025 to 21% in the second quarter of 2026, and the unemployment rate for the total population decreased from 16.5% to 16.1%.

This improvement does not mean that the unemployment problem has been solved by any means. An unemployment rate of 21% among Jordanians is still high, and therefore the limited decline in unemployment cannot be considered a radical transformation in the labor market. But at the same time, it represents an important signal, especially if it comes within a path where the improvement in growth is accompanied by a gradual improvement in labor market indicators. Here we reach the question that matters more to the citizen than any other figure: how does a 3% growth rate affect his life?

The economic answer is that the impact does not occur directly or immediately. When we say that the output grew by 3%, it means that the economy produced more goods and services than it produced in the corresponding period of the previous year. But the increase in production creates an incentive for investment. Investment leads to the expansion of production capacity. As production expands, the demand for labor, inputs, and services increases, which can gradually reflect on job opportunities, income, and living standards. Therefore, the impact of growth takes time to move from economic activity to people's lives.

Here comes the importance of the continuity and quality of growth. Growth in one quarter alone is not enough to make a significant change in people's lives, but the continuation of growth leads to the accumulation of output and the expansion of production capacity. The economy's ability to create job opportunities and income increases when this growth is led by sectors with high added value.

The economy is the result of the interaction of a wide range of factors, including economic policies, investment, domestic and foreign demand, remittances, energy prices, foreign trade, and regional and international conditions. Therefore, what is required in the coming phase is not only to maintain a growth rate of 3%, but also to gradually increase the growth rate and turn the current stability into higher and more sustainable growth. This requires expanding industrial investment in particular, facilitating financing, reducing production costs, opening new export markets, enhancing local value chains, and linking education and training to the needs of productive sectors. The citizen may not feel the impact of a single quarter's growth directly, but he will feel the impact of continuous, accelerating, and cumulative growth, especially when it is led by a productive sector capable of creating real added value.

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