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Scientists from the University of California, Irvine, and NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory have concluded that the contribution of the Doomsday glacier to the rise in global ocean levels could be double what was previously thought.
The journal Nature Communications indicates that according to the new ice sheet model, the Doomsday glacier's contribution to sea-level rise could reach 30 mm by 2100, even without further warming. Previous estimates were half that amount.
Data from the Finnish satellite constellation ICEYE over 20 years were essential to the revised estimates. Researchers recorded that seawater penetrates several kilometers beneath the base of the ice, lifting it during high tide and scouring it with warm currents, which accelerates ice melting at its base.
The Thwaites Glacier is known as the "Doomsday Glacier" because it is the largest glacier on Earth, with a width of about 120 kilometers. It accounts for about a third of the total ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet. Warm ocean water weakens the ice as it detaches from the seabed, pushing it toward deeper areas and allowing more ice to reach the ocean.
However, according to researcher Mattia Poinelli from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, fixed ridges prevent the ice from sliding into the ocean, as its main part is anchored by the Muginu mountain range. Computer modeling showed a 60 percent probability of the Muginu mountain range collapsing by the end of the twenty-first century.
Eric Rignot, a professor of Earth system science at the University of California, points out that the new model, as the most comprehensive for physical processes, is capable of simulating the observed melting pattern. Its predictions are considered twice as good as those of previous models.
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