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Aql: Expectations of a 4-5% increase in local fuel prices

Aql: Expectations of a 4-5% increase in local fuel prices

Energy expert Hashem Aql expects an increase in the prices of both types of gasoline and diesel in the upcoming pricing, with approximate rates of 4% for 90-octane gasoline and 5% for both 95-octane gasoline and diesel. He estimated the actual increase in cost at about 20%, equivalent to 175 fils per liter, noting that the expected local increase rates reflect a gradual pass-through of a portion of this cost.

He stated that the rise in global oil derivative prices is pressuring energy import costs in Jordan, while the gradual adjustment of local prices and the treasury's absorption of part of the increase contribute to mitigating its impact on citizens and economic sectors.

He explained that Jordan's almost complete reliance on importing crude oil and oil derivatives makes it more susceptible to global market fluctuations, as fuel costs are linked to global derivative prices, in addition to shipping, refining, insurance, and risk premium costs.

He indicated that geopolitical tensions and risks threatening oil supply routes increase energy costs, while de-escalation could contribute to easing these pressures and their reflection on prices.

Aql pointed out that the rising oil import bill pressures the current account and the balance of payments, as a result of increased payments abroad without a corresponding rise in foreign revenues, which may increase the need for external financing or pressure foreign reserves. He added that this impact is more pronounced in energy-importing countries, including Jordan, compared to oil-producing nations.

Regarding local price management, he said that the government does not necessarily pass the entire global increase to the consumer at once, but rather resorts to gradual adjustments in gasoline and diesel prices, absorbs part of the cost, and maintains fixed prices for certain items, such as kerosene and household gas, in accordance with government decisions.

He emphasized that this policy eases the pressure on household purchasing power and limits the transmission of rising transport and energy costs to the prices of goods and services, but it conversely imposes additional burdens on the general budget, which requires balancing the protection of citizens with maintaining financial stability.

Aql believes that reducing the impact of energy shocks requires continuing to diversify energy sources, accelerating the development of the Risha gas field, expanding solar and wind energy projects, diversifying import sources, and strengthening regional electricity and gas interconnection projects, including utilizing the Arab Gas Pipeline.

He called for rationalizing energy consumption in the public sector, encouraging energy efficiency in the private sector, attracting investments in renewable energy and less energy-intensive industries, and monitoring the import bill to limit its pressures on the national economy.

He affirmed that the treasury's absorption of part of the global increases reflects a trend to alleviate living burdens, while developing local energy sources and increasing consumption efficiency remain the foundation for reducing these burdens in the future.

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