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Amman —

Fuel.. The coming period is difficult

Brent crude, according to available indicators, has maintained high levels ranging between 102 and 106 dollars per barrel since the beginning of the current month, which puts the prices of petroleum derivatives under additional pressure, for reasons including a decline in global refining capacity by about 10%, as a result of the disruption of between 30% and 40% of Russian refineries, and a decline in exports of refined products from Arabian Gulf ports.

These developments mean that the problem is no longer limited to rising oil prices, but rather to the availability of petroleum derivatives themselves, from gasoline and diesel to kerosene, which explains the significant increases in their prices in many global markets. Therefore, even if crude prices stabilize, the shortage of refined products may keep the pressures in place, and make the cost of securing market needs more difficult.

Locally, the picture seems more sensitive, in light of the gap between global prices and the prices adopted in the Jordanian market, and the resulting burdens borne by the government to alleviate the situation for citizens. The government has borne about 260 million dinars to subsidize fuel prices, an amount that reflects the scale of the financial challenge that may worsen if global conditions remain as they are or deteriorate further.

The figures indicate that the global price of 90-octane gasoline is about 1.17 dinars per liter, exceeding the local price by about 12 piasters, while the difference in diesel reaches about 13.5 piasters per liter, with a global price of 1.035 dinars. As for kerosene, its global price is about 89.5 piasters per liter, with a subsidy difference reaching 45 piasters, while the subsidy for a liquefied gas cylinder amounts to about 5.5 dinars.

These differences place the government before a difficult equation; on one hand, there is a need to protect citizens and economic sectors from sudden increases that may reflect on transport, production, and commodity prices, and on the other hand, there is a financial cost that cannot be ignored if the crisis persists.

In summary, the coming period is difficult, and perhaps more complex than many expect. Energy markets are not only suffering from a price crisis, but also a supply and refining crisis. Between external fluctuations and internal costs, the real challenge remains protecting the citizen without burdening public finances with loads beyond their capacity to bear. In the fuel file specifically, preparing today may be less costly than facing surprises tomorrow.

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