Al-Zoubi: Climate is a Direct Factor in Determining Food Production

Al-Zoubi believes that Jordan faces an unparalleled dual challenge: chronic and structural water scarcity on the one hand, and accelerating climate changes on the other. The third version of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) document submitted by Jordan to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change presents scenarios of temperature increases ranging between 1.2 and 2.2 degrees Celsius by 2050, with projections that per capita water share will fall below 100 cubic meters annually, and the frequency of droughts, floods, and heatwaves will increase. The National Water Strategy 2023-2040 estimates the current daily per capita share at about 61 cubic meters, compared to the international scarcity line of 500 cubic meters, meaning that Jordan is not approaching the crisis but is living inside it, and the climate is deepening it year after year.

Al-Zoubi explains that the impact of this transformation on agriculture is practical and tangible; rising temperatures increase plant water demand and raise evaporation and transpiration rates, meaning the crop itself requires a larger amount of water to produce the same quantity. Moreover, high temperatures during flowering and fruit-setting seasons reduce the productivity of some crops even with water availability, and expand the geographical and temporal spread of pests and diseases. Rainfed agriculture, the backbone of grain in the Badia and highlands, is the most vulnerable due to its reliance solely on the sky, while the productivity of natural rangelands declines, raising feed costs and putting pressure on livestock breeders, and fruit trees face disruptions in winter chill requirements, ripening dates, and fruit quality.

Al-Zoubi points out that the deeper problem is not just in the amount of rainfall, but in its timing and distribution. It has become common for large quantities to fall within a few days, followed by long periods of drought in the heart of the season, creating a harsh paradox: plenty of water falls while limited agricultural benefit is achieved. Data from the Ministry of Water and Irrigation shows that the volume of rainfall in 2017 reached about 8.2 billion cubic meters, of which about 7.6 billion cubic meters evaporated—nearly 93 percent. Meanwhile, concentrated heavy rains turn into torrents that erode topsoil, which is Jordan's most valuable asset after water, and damage crops, agricultural roads, and canals, in a country that needs every single drop and every centimeter of its soil.

Al-Zoubi draws attention to an issue that does not receive sufficient attention in public debate: the agricultural calendar is no longer fixed. The Jordanian farmer inherited an agricultural calendar built on generations of experience, and this calendar is eroding before our eyes. The dates for ploughing, planting, flowering, irrigation, and harvesting are shifting from one year to the next, and the farmer's decisions based on habit entail increasing risk.

He believes there is a need for a dynamic and smart agricultural calendar built on updated climate data, seasonal forecasts, and early warning systems, reaching the farmer in simple language and in a timely manner via phone and digital platforms. Climate information that arrives late or remains confined to reports has no productive value.

Al-Zoubi adds that the climate has another face affecting food security through the import gateway rather than production. Jordanian food security is determined not only by what is grown within the borders, but by the ability to access food in global markets at affordable prices. When droughts or floods strike major production regions in the world, the shock quickly transfers to Jordan in the form of price spikes, supply disruptions, and increased import costs. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates in July 2026 place Jordan's grain import needs for the 2026/2027 season at about 3 million tons. In contrast, the strategic reserve policy committed to by the government represents the first line of defense; the Ministry of Industry, Trade, and Supply announced in August 2026 that wheat reserves cover about 9.6 months and barley reserves about 9.5 months of domestic consumption. Al-Zoubi describes this management as sober and commendable, but notes that it protects against the shock without addressing its source. Risk management buys time, whereas maximizing domestic productivity is what should be invested in.

Hence lies the core message, according to Al-Zoubi: Jordan can no longer face climate change with the traditional agricultural model based on expanding areas and water quantities used, especially since agriculture currently consumes about 48.6 percent of water resources, groundwater is being pumped at about twice the safe yield of the reserve, and the National Water Strategy projects an additional 15 percent decline in freshwater resources by 2040 due to climate change. He believes the legitimate question is no longer how to increase cultivated areas, but how to achieve the highest production and highest economic and nutritional value from every cubic meter of water. This is a shift in philosophy before being a shift in technology, requiring a serious review of the cropping pattern so that agricultural decisions are not based on production quantity alone, but on four combined criteria: economic value, nutritional value, water footprint, and resilience to heat and drought.

Translating this transformation into reality, according to Al-Zoubi, passes through integrated pathways where no single path can replace another. The most prominent of these are: developing drought, heat, and salinity-tolerant varieties in partnership with the National Center for Agricultural Research (NCAR) and international centers; transitioning from modern irrigation to precision irrigation linked with soil moisture sensors and remote sensing; safely and thoughtfully expanding the use of treated wastewater as a fixed resource unaffected by seasonal scarcity (as Jordan produces about 186 million cubic meters annually, reusing more than 90 percent of it in irrigation); in addition to harvesting rainwater and torrents through small facilities distributed at the basin and farm level rather than relying solely on large dams, and protecting soil through terraces and conservation agriculture. Al-Zoubi stresses that all of this requires scientific research directed toward field needs, agricultural extension that restores its role as a bridge between knowledge and the farmer, and agricultural insurance that protects small producers from the shock of a single season that could drive them out of the market permanently. He emphasizes that none of this can be managed in isolation from energy, because water in Jordan means pumping, desalination, and treatment. In this context, he reminds us that the World Bank's Jordan Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) stresses that treating the water-energy-food-environment nexus as a single system is a prerequisite for building genuine resilience in a resource-scarce, import-dependent country.

Al-Zoubi believes it is fair to say that Jordan is not starting from scratch. There is a genuine national asset base represented by nationally determined contributions that place water security and agricultural resilience at the core of adaptation priorities, a National Water Strategy 2023-2040, the National Water Carrier project as an investment in a non-climatic resource, and research institutions and technical cadres built over decades. However, he points out that the challenge today is no longer in preparing strategies—Jordan excels at that—but in the speed of turning them into funded projects and investment packages that actually reach the field and the farmer. He considers the gap between the document and the ground to be the gap that must be narrowed, because the climate does not wait for planning cycles.

Al-Zoubi concludes by stating that climate change imposes a new reality on Jordan, but this very reality can be an opportunity to modernize Jordanian agriculture. The future of agriculture will not be tied to who possesses a larger amount of water, but to who can use the available water more intelligently and efficiently. Every drop of water must become part of a calculated economic and food equation, and every agricultural decision must take into account the new climate in which Jordan lives, not the climate under which agriculture learned to grow. Investing in more efficient agriculture capable of adapting to the climate is not only an investment in the agricultural sector, but a direct investment in Jordanian food security, economic and social stability, and the future of coming generations.