However, using reserves is a temporary solution, as the barrel that countries withdraw today must be repurchased later. Therefore, the need for many countries to rebuild their stocks before winter may create additional demand for oil and gas, even if there is no new escalation in the war. With rising seasonal demand in winter, price pressures could renew.
IMF estimates indicate that OECD countries hold about 2 billion barrels of commercial and strategic reserves, while China's reserves are estimated at about 1.3 billion barrels. Furthermore, strategic and commercial reserves in importing countries could theoretically cover about 40 to 45 days of global supply shortages at current disruption levels. This shows that reserves give the global economy time to adapt, but they cannot compensate for supply shortages indefinitely.
On the positive side, investment in artificial intelligence and technology has become a supporting force for growth and investment in a number of major economies. But this boom itself increases the demand for electricity and energy, meaning that technology could simultaneously be a factor supporting growth and a source of increased energy demand.
The biggest risk is global public debt, which is approaching 100% of GDP, a historically high level. With rising interest rates, debt servicing becomes more expensive, and governments' ability to borrow to face shocks narrows. If energy prices rise, governments may need to increase subsidies and spending to protect households and productive sectors, which raises deficits and debt at a time when financing costs are rising.
Here, economic policy faces a difficult equation. Raising interest rates to combat inflation may weaken growth and increase the cost of debt, while increasing government spending may protect the economy in the short term but increases financial pressures in the long term.
For Jordan, these developments are of particular importance. Jordan is an energy importer, so rising oil prices are reflected in the import bill, transport and production costs, the current account, and prices. In a scenario where war disruptions continue for a limited period, the IMF estimated that Jordanian growth would fall to 2.7% compared to 3% before the war, inflation would rise to about 2.3%, and the current account deficit would widen to 6.9% of GDP.
Therefore, the strength of the Jordanian economy in facing shocks depends on maintaining foreign reserves and exchange rate stability, controlling debt and public finance, and boosting exports, tourism, and investment.
The global economy has not overcome the energy shock but has managed to absorb it so far. However, its continuation may make the equation more difficult, especially if high energy prices combine with inflation, rising financing costs, and high debt. Therefore, economic resilience is not measured only by achieving 3% growth, but by the ability of economies to maintain financial, monetary, and external safety margins. Global economic resilience is important, but maintaining this resilience if the shock persists is more important.
