This is the question that we, in the Amman Group for Future Dialogues, have tried to answer, away from the displays and media statements made by some officials to embellish reality away from the truth. The answer came through the health team in the group, which includes in its membership an elite group of the best specialists in the health field, including doctors, pharmacists, and health administrators, who are familiar with the reality of the Jordanian health system. So what did they find, and can we be reassured about our health system?
In its answer to the question, the Amman Group for Future Dialogues did not deny that Jordan represents a model of stability in the highly volatile Middle East region, as it borders countries experiencing permanent conflicts (Syria, Iraq, and Palestine) and escalating geopolitical risks (Iran and Israel). In this context, the challenges to the Jordanian health system are multiplied, as its role is not limited to serving citizens only, but extends to include dealing with expected refugee flows and the indirect effects of regional conflicts.
The importance of this readiness is highlighted by looking at the figures of the Jordanian health system, which are sounding the alarm, in addition to the fact that the geographical distribution of the components of the Jordanian health system is unbalanced. These data make assessing the system's readiness to face shocks such as regional wars or natural disasters a top national priority.
Therefore, the health team in the group studied the six building blocks established by the World Health Organization as measures of the capacity of any health system. These building blocks are leadership and governance, financing, workforce, medical products, health information, and service delivery, with a special focus on regional war scenarios, including limited and comprehensive escalation.
Then, the strengths and weaknesses of each of the building blocks that make up the Jordanian health system were studied.
In addition to the risks and regional war scenarios, such as the outbreak of a limited war between Israel and Iran or armed factions, and the extent of the indirect impact on Jordan (interruption of supply, rising prices, and limited flow of refugees and wounded). As well as the outbreak of a wide war involving several countries, where Jordan would face enormous pressure from a mass influx of refugees (larger and faster than the Syrian crisis), receiving huge numbers of the wounded (burns and serious wounds), an almost complete interruption of medical supply chains, pressure on water and energy, and the possibility of targeting critical infrastructure (including major hospitals).
The group also studied the possibility of a biological/chemical attack scenario. Although Jordan is located in a region that may witness the use of unconventional weapons in the event of a comprehensive regional war, the health system currently lacks sufficient capabilities for early detection of biological/chemical agents, a strategic stockpile of specific antidotes and antibiotics, and clear protocols for mass decontamination of the injured. It is noteworthy that the Prime Minister confirmed that the government has taken proactive measures to ensure the sustainability of supply, the continued rotation of the economic wheel, and the preservation of the strategic stockpile, while rejecting that Jordan should be a theater for war.
The study by the Amman Group for Future Dialogues concluded with a set of recommendations to strengthen the Jordanian health system to face natural disasters and wars.
