For decades packed with events, scenario writers have proliferated, their inclinations varied, their directions conflicted, and their goals clashed. Yet, none of them have been fully completed; many have been subjected to modification and development to revive them and extend their near-expired lifespan, while others have been frozen or placed in the morgue. Remarkably, this region appears as a massive pile of white papers that tempts continuous writing. However, it is truly regrettable that many of the people and entities in this region do not write their own scenarios. Often, scenarios are imposed upon them from here and there, and they find themselves interacting with and integrating into them due to the geopolitical situation and the necessity of building a reaction to an imposed action that cannot be avoided. Instead, it is often dealt with in order to mitigate damage as much as possible, or at the very least, to postpone it.
The lack of completion of the region's scenarios in a way that settles the results for one side, even for just a hundred years, has left the entire region at the mercy of inherited states of instability. It is as if this patch in the Eastern Mediterranean is a field of active volcanoes that calm down a little only to erupt frequently. We know that a volcanic zone is an environment unsuitable for agriculture, development, and living, which deprives these countries of achieving real, long-term development in an atmosphere free from the fear of an unknown future. Therefore, the incompleteness of the scenario—any scenario—in a mature way makes the state of half-measures the heavy, prevailing reality. The general feeling of suspicion, apprehension, and mistrust has been a feature of the region for many long decades, creating a state of future blindness clouded by thick fog and a loss of horizontal visibility.
It is a situation that everyone suffers from: the greedy aggressor and the ambitious alike. They suffer from their inability to achieve what they planned in a complete manner, so this deficiency remains a center of weakness—the door from which the wind blows. They find no stability and no rest, remaining in a vortex of fear and exhausting mobilization. Even those with counter-scenarios suffer from shortcomings in their plans and retreat steps after taking half a step forward. This is a situation with many witnesses and even more pains, casting heavy shadows on those involved and deepening mistrust to the point of total uncertainty about the future, which is the most dangerous thing the people of the Eastern Mediterranean face.
Perhaps what makes the situation more complex, with the incompleteness of these scenarios and the persistence of shortcomings as the order of the day—by keeping the embers hot under the ashes—is that the major scenarios, which come from abroad formulated and managed by major and active powers, also quickly catch the infection of incompleteness. To avoid a resounding collapse or to evade admitting failure, they are fragmented, and certain pieces here and there are treated as brilliant successes credited to these powers in this intractable region. However, these parts soon dissolve, and chronic problems return anew, more destructive and painful than before.
Here, a more romantic scene emerges: Will the region stand on the seashore, contemplate its past—which does not differ much from its present—and look with a new eye toward its future, as if deciding to change its destiny? Will it transform everything previously and currently written and planned in order to build a new, locally produced scenario that takes the region to a state of genuine maturity, leading future generations to a state of long-term calm and building a renaissance with noble human horizons?
