The most prominent event in the elections that took place in Israel is the scale of the massive polarization that enveloped the electoral scene, and the focus on the political future of current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, especially after the failures of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent wars and chaos that plunged the entire world into economic and political crises, the repercussions of which are still unfolding today.
The most prominent equation after the announcement of the preliminary results is as follows: Netanyahu's camp, 53 seats; Eisenkot's camp, 48 seats; and the Arab parties, 19 seats. This means that neither of the two competing poles will be able to form a government because neither reached the support of 61 out of 120 in the «Knesset». Thus, the Arab seats become a deciding factor in the calculations of those who want to form a government, despite both sides declaring that they will not rely on these votes from either side.
But what is the reason that pushed the Arab vote in Israeli society to mobilize and participate in the elections with such intensity?
The most important goal is to influence the future of any new government, after they suffered immensely from policies of exclusion, marginalization, and discrimination, which led to rising rates of organized crime in Arab society, a significant decline in public services, and a weakness in resources and opportunities. This is what called for this entire shift in the Arab mood to confront this reality.
This Arab political presence is not limited to the 19 seats they won, but extends to supporting the ability of Arab parties to transform their parliamentary presence into a political negotiating force. We do not say that it influences Israeli policies in terms of returning to negotiations and the option of peace with the Palestinians and their Arab neighbors, but at the very least, it concerns the ability of Arab society to be present in the democratic game and to impose Arab society's issues on the next government's agenda.
However, the matter ultimately depends on the extent to which Arab parties can coordinate their positions, define their common priorities, benefit from the divisions within the two Israeli camps currently on the scene, and not be content with the role of tipping the scales for either camp. Thus, there is an opportunity for the representatives of the Arab parties not to be content with the position of opposition or parliamentary representation only, but more importantly, to effectively influence policies and trends in terms of legislation and budgets, especially since Israeli political circles view Arab participation as an electoral burden, rather than viewing it as a natural and essential part of the political and electoral system in Israel.
Regardless of the expected scenarios after the appearance of the preliminary results for the next phase, the important result produced by these elections is that Arab representation and participation are no longer a marginal matter in Israeli political calculations. This may have consequences if the hardline Israeli right succeeds in forming a new government, but this number needs to be converted into sustainable political influence and a fixed, clear strategy that influences the future, if not in terms of regional political issues, then at least in terms of presence and involvement in the affairs of the Arab citizen themselves, who has begun to suffer and face clear marginalization on more than one level within society.
The importance of this number also lies in the fact that it may push the political path into a new crisis that opens up options for forming a transitional government that leads to a return to the ballot boxes, if the parties fail to form a new government or a minority government. Although the two main camps led by Netanyahu and Eisenkot ruled out an alliance with the Arab parties to form a majority government, considering it a red line, options remain open to all possibilities, which is what the next few days will reveal regarding the new political map internally.
