The Middle East is passing through a phase of strategic fluidity—a stage where power balances shift rapidly and equations lose their stability after every round. Military force alone is incapable of stabilizing these equations, prompting economic geography to advance to the forefront of regional and international competition.
The impact of the confrontation has extended to the global economy through vital corridors. Disruptions of traffic in Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are directly reflected in energy prices, shipping and insurance costs, and spill over into global supply chains.
This reflects the rise of the "economics of risk," where anyone capable of creating a state of uncertainty wields an influence that surpasses their military size. Raising the cost of trade or disrupting navigation achieves political and strategic gains without a broad conventional confrontation, which explains the limited effectiveness of traditional deterrence in many cases against asymmetrical warfare tools.
Regional and international parties are seeking alternative routes, such as the Saudi East-West pipeline toward Yanbu and the Emirati Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, in addition to developing ports and land corridors. These routes alleviate dependence on a single geographical bottleneck, but they cannot replace maritime straits in the foreseeable future.
Jordan is affected by these transformations from more than one direction. Aqaba Port, the Kingdom's main maritime outlet, is located on the Red Sea and linked to the Bab el-Mandeb and Suez Canal route; therefore, navigational disruptions there increase transport and insurance costs for its traffic. Meanwhile, the impact of Hormuz reaches Jordan through energy markets, as it imports most of its energy needs, causing its import bill to rise with every price fluctuation.
Conversely, Jordan's location grants it an opportunity to serve as a logistical hub connecting the Gulf, Iraq, and the Eastern Mediterranean. With investments in infrastructure and regional integration projects, it can transform part of these pressures into economic and strategic gains.
The concept of power in the region is changing; after being tied to the size of armies, it has become similarly tied to the ability to influence trade, energy networks, and supply chains. Future competition is likely to revolve around controlling global economic flows.
Thus, maritime corridors are becoming an arena for redistributing influence, and Jordan faces the task of protecting its economy from the fallout of regional turbulence while capitalizing on its position in the emerging economic map.
