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Amman —

Regional variables, and paying attention to what is coming

Before entering the Red Sea at Bab al-Mandab, the ship's captain was forced to take an alternative route that took three days, to avoid a gathering of pirates, following a satellite warning.

Nevertheless, crossing the Red Sea was easy; it seemed to us more like a calm and narrow waterway than an open sea, as we could hear the call to prayer and pick up radio broadcasts from its shores.

What happens on one bank of the Red Sea does not remain far from its other banks; sounds are transient, geography is intertwined, and so are security, economy, and interests.

As for Bab al-Mandab, it is one of the most important water arteries in the world, connecting East to West and South to North, through which trade and supply chains pass, just as threats and chaos may pass through it.

While the world was hoping for the subsidence of the waterway crisis in the Gulf, the recent military developments in Yemen have further complicated the scene around this artery.

In the broader regional scene, and not far from our northern borders, active powers are racing, under the cover of chaos, to impose new facts to control strategic locations and passages by land and sea.

If we head south toward the African side of the Red Sea, the specter of war looms between Ethiopia and Eritrea, against the backdrop of Ethiopia's efforts to reach its ports, not to mention the war weighing heavily on the chest of Sudan.

Thus, the sea that once seemed calm to us has its banks on the verge of explosion, while the region's vital passages are being turned, by design, into tools of economic pressure whose repercussions reach the world.

Consequently, all roads no longer lead to Rome; Europe, which is awaiting energy supplies, may have a long wait, in light of straits and passages where interests and ambitions are intertwined.

The words of His Majesty King Abdullah II before the United Nations come to mind, with their deep reading of the scene and foresight of its variables, especially His Majesty's talk about attention as a geopolitical resource; what we pay attention to today, or allow our attention to be distracted from, may contribute to shaping what we face tomorrow.

What we overlook today may turn tomorrow into a reality that is difficult to change, while we move toward a zero hour that many do not realize how close it is.

In the face of these possibilities, Jordan possesses a solid experience in dealing with crises and protecting its security and stability, and the Jordanian Armed Forces – the Arab Army and security services were at the forefront of those who bore this responsibility; it is an experience that gives us confidence, but does not justify complacency or waiting.

Hence, the necessity of anticipating shifts and preparing for their possibilities, and sharing responsibilities between state institutions and society emerges; preparation is not only military or political, but also economic, media-related, and societal, including moral readiness that precedes crises, and a national discourse that fortifies awareness in the face of disinformation and media wars.

This is inseparable from the necessity of addressing everything that might weaken trust or affect the cohesion of society; a strong internal front is not a luxury, but one of the most important pillars of national security.

With the complexity of contemporary wars and the difficulty of resolving them militarily, weakening internal fronts has become one of the goals of conflicts, and a means to achieve what might be impossible on the battlefields.

Preparing for what is coming does not mean fearing it, but rather enhances the ability to protect interests under various circumstances.

On this blessed land, Jordan's strength is manifested in the vigilance and awareness of its people, their rallying around their homeland and leadership, and their good reliance on God.

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