Hashem Aql: Oil Prices Continue to Rise... and the Barrel May Exceed $130 if the War Escalates
Amman3 min read
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Oil expert Hashem Aql expects oil prices to continue rising and remain at high and fluctuating levels in the near term, predicting a gradual decline during 2027 if Gulf exports return and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz becomes regular.
Aql said that the price of Brent crude is currently trading at about $101 per barrel, an increase of nearly 55 percent compared to its levels at the beginning of the war on February 28, attributing the rise to supply disruptions in the Middle East and continued restrictions on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
He added that OPEC, in its latest meeting, kept production quotas at their current levels, which are about 31 million barrels per day, awaiting market developments, noting that the return of oil flows from the Gulf region could push prices down to about $90 per barrel.
Aql pointed out that about 16.5 million barrels per day were exported from the Gulf region last month, a level close to normal rates under normal circumstances, which may help alleviate price pressures if these flows continue.
He expected oil prices to return during 2027 to levels ranging between $70 and $75 per barrel, with the possibility of falling to the $60 range if production increases significantly, along with drawing down strategic reserves and the return of production in the region.
He explained that oil prices may range between $90 and $110 per barrel next week, amid sharp fluctuations linked to political and military developments in the region, noting that any easing could lead to a rapid and significant drop in prices.
He said that the coming months may see a gradual decline in oil prices with the reduction or disappearance of the risk premium that raises prices, explaining that the return to normalcy and the reduction of transportation, shipping, and insurance costs could stabilize the barrel price between $60 and $70, a level he described as good for the global economy and Jordan.
Aql emphasized that the decisive factor in determining the direction of prices is the timing of the return of navigation and production in the Arabian Gulf, considering that current predictions remain linked to the course of the conflict and field developments.
He explained that the possible scenarios range from the continuation of the current situation and the barrel price remaining above $100, and the escalation of military tensions which may push prices to exceed $130, compared to the scenario of reaching an agreement that would initially lead to a price drop to between $80 and $90, before stabilizing later at levels ranging between $60 and $70.
